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Transforming the rural Asian economy: The unfinished revolution. Oxford Univ. Press, Hong Kong. Leach, and R. Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption. Society 58 2 Rosegrant M. Paisner, S. Meijer, and J. Global food projections to Emerging trends and alternative futures.


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Technical release No. The dual goals of food between and as food demand de- self-sufficiency and sustainable resource man- clined. The rising demand for maize as a feed agement are often mutually incompatible. As a result, food self- with cereals Steinfeld and Kamakawa Appropriate policy only 1.

Meanwhile, rice demand has essentially sibly reversing the current degradation trends, leveled off. Huang Rosegrant But even if environmental and Bouis show that diets change as degradation in intensive Asian cropping sys- populations move from rural to urban areas. Urban lifestyles sumption remained constant, while wheat con- also place a premium on foods that require less sumption continued its modest increases. In time to prepare inducing, for example, a shift contrast to China, maize consumption in India from rice to wheat bread as employment has risen a bare 1 kilogram per capita between opportunities for women improve and the and , indicating that it has not yet opportunity cost of their time increases.

Urban become an important feedgrain in that coun- occupations tend to be more sedentary than try. People engaged in more sedentary Riceat kilograms per capita of con- occupations require fewer calories to maintain sumption in dominates Southeast Asian a given body weight. In addition, urban resi- diets far more than it dominates Indian and dents typically do not grow their own food. Chinese diets. Wheat only accounted for 16 Thus, their consumption choices are not con- kilograms per capita of consumption in South- strained by the potentially high cost of selling east Asia in Southeast Asian rice demand one food item at farmgate prices say, rice to has increased steadily since , while wheat buy another food item say, bread at retail seems to be emerging as an increasingly prices a choice faced by semi-subsistence pro- important crop, with demand rising 45 percent ducers.

And while changes in food demand between and India is more of a supply phenomenon and The demand trends have been slightly dif- thus more of a cause for concern. Per capita ferent in India, however. Per capita cereal demand has slowed significantly in the s, rice and wheat consumption in India are only rising 4 kilograms per capita during still well below Chinese levels, despite some to kilograms per capita, compared growth in per capita wheat consumption with gains in per capita consumption of 12 between and Hopper calcu- kilograms during Increases in per lates that energy and protein supplies in India capita cereal consumption in India over the last only grew at a rate of 1 percent per year 30 years have been unimpressive, especially between and , and that the develop- considering the low initial level of consump- ing world as a whole has increased per capita tion.

Both wheat and rice contributed to the energy supplies twice as fast as India since increase in cereal consumption between Thus, despite overall food self- and , with rice consumption rising 11 kilo- sufficiency, Hopper concludes that grams per capita and wheat consumption average supplies of energy and protein in rising 8 kilograms per capita Table 2.

Table of Contents

India are insufficient to meet average needs. Consumption of other coarse grains declined Protein in particular fell 21 percent below exist- significantly during this period, from 33 kilo- ing per capita needs, and several million peo- grams per capita to 26 kilograms per capita. Chinas per capita gross domes- East Asia These changes to the live- 24 to 27 percent World Bank b. Rapid stock sector, while supplanting the traditional change in the Chinese society and economy functions of livestock as assets, insurance, and brought about a steep rise in per capita meat objects of sociocultural importance, have per- consumption Table 2.

Indian meat Kamakawa Between and live- consumption, however, only rose from 3. Thus, while meat 6.

Past trends in child malnutrition

Pro- dem with the significant shifts occurring in the duction grew fastest in both East and Southeast Chinese society and economy, India, with Asia during the period , rising 8. Within the livestock sec- consumption, has barely seen meat consump- tor, production has increasingly shifted toward tion rise at all. According to Kamakawa In East Asia, poultry produc- Steinfeld and Kamakawa , the three main tion increased at an overall rate of 8.

The trend of rapidly in production away from land-based systems expanding poultry production during the s toward large-scale industrial operations, and the was similar in South and Southeast Asia. South Asian South Asia 4. Rapid economic development and rising incomes have driven potato demand production rose more slowly than poultry pro- in Asia, where consumers desire to diversify duction in all Asian regions during the s, their diets and where potatoes are viewed as a preferred luxury good, in contrast to their infe- but it actually grew faster between and rior status in the developed world.

In addition, in both South and Southeast Asia. This was potato demand has often increased at the not the case in East Asia, where egg production expense of less preferred, alternative com- grew fastest between and at And an increas- cent annually. Finally, sive production is thus dominating growth in expanding Asian production and resulting low Asian livestock productionparticularly poul- prices have further stimulated demand Scott, try, eggs, pork, and occasionally milkat the Rosegrant, and Ringler Along with other expense of a more traditional, resource-driven, roots and tuber crops, sweet potatoes are an and labor-intensive sector.

While this change important feed crop in China, with demand ris- has brought with it rapidly expanding produc- ing at an overall rate of 4.


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  • Industrial live- Sweet potatoes are stock production generates relatively little used mainly as feed for pigs, and more than 80 employment, poses severe environmental haz- percent of pig production in China takes place ards due to its tendency to cluster near large at the village and household level, much of it in urban areas, and increases the potential sever- Sichuan Province, a geographically isolated area ity of animal health problems Steinfeld and without easy access to feed imports Scott, Kamakawa Nevertheless, as long as ris- Rosegrant, and Ringler Recent shifts in ing incomes and urbanization continue to gen- the livestock sector toward industrialized pro- erate high demand for livestock products, duction of pigs and poultry slowed growth in structural change in the Asian livestock sector sweet potato feed demand in China to 2.

    Demand for roots and tubers as a food source Asian agricultural production systems have expanded at a rate of only 0. In China, tor in Latin America over the last 30 years has the two main problems confronting policy- been that of a policy-induced macroeconomic makers over the next several decades will be cycle, which led to expansion of the agricul- preservation of the natural resource basewith tural sector during the s and s, sustainable use of water resources and conflict retrenchment during the s, and subse- over competing land uses the big issuesand quent rapid growth in a low-inflation, liberal- demand-driven structural change in the live- izing environment during the s.

    During stock sector as intensive, industrial production the s and s, Latin American countries gradually replaces extensive, small-scale tradi- benefited from the overall strength of the tional production.